JEM News

Welcome to Your New Job... But Don't Fall in Love With the Neighborhood Just Yet!    posted 2009

   In the waning weeks of each college football season, as conference championships heat up, bowl directors make up their wish lists of teams that would be the best draw and the talk begins about who will play in the BCS title game, there are just as many programs passing out the pink slips. Whether it was too many losses, the need to head in a "new direction" or they couldn't beat their hated rival, there are almost as many programs putting coaches in the unemployment line as there are ones heading for warm weather bowl destinations. Such is life in major college football.

   Last year alone 20 schools replaced their head man. Some retired such as Mike Bellotti (Ore.) and Joe Tiller (Purdue) and some moved on to bigger programs and more lucrative contracts such as Gene Chizik (ISU-AU) and Brady Hoke (BSU-SDSU) but most were unceremoniously canned. At times this could work out well. Nick Saben took Alabama to a bowl win in his first season, finished 12-2 last year and was one quarter of football away from playing for the BCS championship. Although it was mostly a lateral move, Houston Nutt took over a 3-9 Mississippi team and turned it around to finish 9-4 including huge wins over Florida and Texas Tech. Brian Kelly took over an average Cincinnati program that finished 19-17 the three previous years under Mark Dantonio and has compiled a 21-4 record the last 2 years including a Big East title and BCS bowl game.

   However, more often than not, the first couple of years under a new regime can prove difficult especially if new schemes are being introduced on either side of the ball. One of the most glaring examples of this was the Michigan situation last year under first year coach Rich Rodriguez. Trying to implement a new spread offense into a program long known for its power rushing attack proved more arduous than most anticipated and resulted in a 3-9 record, the first losing season in 40 years for the Wolverines. Bill Callahan experienced the same frustrations in Lincoln where the transformation to a wide open attack yielded seasons of 5-6, 8-4, 9-5 and 5-7 before he was fired. Even if a new coach is not introducing dramatic change, adjustment to a new staff can be difficult. I'm sure most fans in Louisville did not envision a 11-13 record the last two years under Steve Kragthorpe after a combined 41-9 record under Bobby Patrino. Although Steve Kragthorp did a remarkable job turning around Tulsa, it is clearly taking a little longer than expected getting the Cardinals back to the top of the Big East.

   Unfortunately time is the one thing most athletic directors and alumni are not willing to provide. Lucrative contracts?...Sure, how would you like that deposited? Stadium renovations and upgraded facilities to wow new recruits?... No problem, when would you like us to break ground? But ask for some patience and your likely response will be... sorry we're fresh out of that one. Out of the 120 head coaches in the FBS, exactly half are in their first 3 years with their program. In fact, job security does not appear to be an option until you reach your ninth season as you could see in the table below.

   How this years class of freshman head coaches will fare, only time will tell. As we mentioned earlier there are 20 new head coaches scattered across the conferences heading into the '09 season. What most consider the toughest, the SEC, has three. Two of them, Lane Kiffin at Tennessee and Gene Chizik at Auburn will need early success while expectations for Dan Mullen at Mississippi St. will not be as high. Even though the Big XII has two 1st year coaches, only Paul Rhoads at Iowa St. qualifies as calling Bill Snyder a new coach at Kansas St. is like calling Brett Favre a rookie in the NFC North. The conference with the most turnover is the MAC as 5 of the 13 schools introduce new staffs. Brady Hoke was rewarded for his accomplishments at Ball St. with the head spot at SDSU. Toledo said goodbye to Tom Amstutz after 30 years of service when he resigned and former Notre Dame OC Mike Haywood becomes the next in line at the "cradle of coaches", Miami (OH). The Pac 10 has two new faces. Steve Sarkisian heads north from USC to Seattle and will try to return the Huskies to the top and Chip Kelly will try to follow the footsteps of Mike Bellotti who won 116 of 171 games in Eugene. The transition should be a little easier for Chip Kelly as well as Danny Hope (Purdue), Frank Spaziani (Boston College) and Stan Parrish (Ball St.) as all four of these coaches were hired from within. There appears to be less shock to the system when schools choose this course. Bret Bielema was 12-1 SU and 9-3 ATS following the legendary Barry Alverez at Wisconsin. Chris Peterson was Boise St's OC when he replaced Dan Hawkins and has posted a 35-4 SU record since '06. I'm sure hearts were broken in Utah when Urban Meyer left the Utes for the "swamp" in Florida. But their DC, Kyle Wittingham, was given the job and has followed the "Urban legend" nicely with a 37-14 SU record including last years undefeated season and #2 final ranking.

   It is always interesting following new coaches and watching their programs mature and improve. Hopefully this year's freshmen class of coaches will see that improvement at years end and not the dreaded pink slip...!    

Home Field....Advantage?    posted 2008

   There is nothing quite like an autumn Saturday. The leaves are falling, the air is fresh and from big cities to small towns across America the sound of drums from university marching bands can be heard. From Doak S. Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee to the Coliseum in Los Angeles, from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge to Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, millions of rabid football fans are doing there best to cheer, scream, shout and yes will there team to victory. Visiting teams must feel like they're being fed to the lions. Audibles at the line can't be heard, the student sections are pounding their feet doing the "Tomahawk", the "Gator Chomp", or singing "Rocky Top" for what seems like an eternity. Every mistake and negative play is shown over and over on the jumbotron. So we ask, how much of an impact does home field advantage have not only on the outcome of the game but, more importantly for a handicapper, on the point spread.

   We decided to break down our data in the table below by conference with each conference's overall  home winning percentage and overall home ATS winning percentage. All records are from the 2000 through 2007. A team must have played at least 5 seasons of IA ball to be counted. As you would expect most of your "power" conferences dominate the home winning percentage category. Now take a look at the home ATS winning percentages. Are you surprised to see the Big East (1), WAC (2) and MAC (T4) all ranked in the top 5? What if we told you, excluding the three Independent teams, that the ACC (10) and the SEC (11) round out the bottom of the list! Scratching your head yet?